USA Weather — Severe Weather Division
This outlook is expired and is no longer valid.
...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST SUNDAY AFTENROON OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
...DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST/EAST US, WITH A BROAD AREA OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIRUNAL HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST DESTABALIZAION INTO THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE. MODERATELY SHEARED AIRMASS WITH 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A LOW-END WIND/HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY EVENING. WHILE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LIMITING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THUS PRECLUDING ANY VERY SLIGHT RISK OUTLINES FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED HOWEVER AS REMNANT OUTFLOW OR MCS CONVECTION THAT EXISTS BY MID-MORNING COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AND THEREFORE A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT AS WELL.