USA Weather — Severe Weather Division
This outlook is expired and is no longer valid.
...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST TONIGHT, WITH WESTERLY 40-50KT 500MB FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND WILL EASE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF WEAK MOISTURE RETURN WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF A MODEST 25-35KT LLJ. DESPITE FAIRLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, A PLUME OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.0-7.5 C/KM OVERTOP A SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES, ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE STORM CELLS WHICH STRENGTHEN ENOUGH DUE TO 40-50KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LONG HODOGRPAHS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A VERY SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. A WEAKENING TREND AFTER 02-03Z IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.